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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|